updated 10:55 am EDT, Mon June 25, 2007
BetUS Bets on iPhone
Online gambling firm BetUS has calculated some of the odds for the iPhone's success, the company revealed today. Giving the same attention to the device that it normally would to sports, the betting house has calculated several factors that could determine its success or failure. Certain outcomes are already fairly likely, BetUS says. Stock value is 1:2 likely to spike by 10 percent or more the next trading day. Odds are also 5:6 that the phone will sell 12 million units in 2008; these chances also carry over to the iPhone's sales in the first month, which BetUS claims are equally likely (5:6) to climb over or dip under 1.2 million units in July.
Certain spectacles that are commonly associated with high-profile launches are also taken into account with less favorable odds, such as reports of camping in line (3:1), trampling or other violence during the launch (20:1), and prices tripling to $1,500 or more on auction sites such as eBay (2:1).
Odds have also been given for failures, however. The company points out that while any one malfunction or defect is expected to be rare, the feature set makes breakdowns a possibility.
"This phone has everything but the kitchen sink," company spokesman Reed Richards claims. "The chances for a malfunction are likely."
The most probable example of a failure would be sub-optimal battery life with 10:1 odds, according to the company. Other pitfalls are said to include a mass recall of the initial batch (30:1) and relatively unlikely problems such as iPod nano-like screen cracking and outright "spontaneous combustions," both of which are rated at 150:1.