03/31/2008, 11:25am, EDT
Monday, March 31stAnalyst: new low-cost iPhones, 45m in 2009
Apple will kick off 2009 with at least one new iPhone model aimed at the budget realm, according to new predictions by Piper Jaffray senior researcher Gene Munster. The analyst expects Apple to have between two to three distinct iPhone models no later than January 2009 and also expects Apple to make its first efforts to branch out past the $400 mark. At least one model will ship at between $200 and $300, Munster claims. One of the three models is likely to be the now presumed 3G iPhone, which Piper Jaffray anticipates arriving between June and September with new features.
Although not necessarily likely to be used, Apple recently filed for a dual-sided trackpad patent that could potentially allow for a smaller-screened iPhone that uses a clamshell design instead of the larger bar design of the phone first launched in 2007.
This combined with rapid expansion plans should lead to a surge in overall sales over the space of the next two years, Munster writes. The expert sees potential iPhone launches in 2008 that could introduce the handset to Canada and Mexico in North America as well as Australia, Italy, and a first Asian launch in Japan. A Chinese release of the phone in 2009 may also occur if Apple is willing to relent on the exclusive deals it has set up in the past.
Should the expansion continue, the new markets could "effectively double" the potential market for iPhones every year and may help Apple sell as many as 45 million iPhones during 2009, according to the analyst. The growth is enough that the cellular business is considered Apple's most potential-laden business and may supercede other categories that the California company depends upon for its current success.
"The iPhone is the driver with the greatest potential," Munster says. "We believe the iPhone will replace the iPod as a driver of significant growth for the company."
Filed under: iPod, iPhone
Other story tags: Piper Jaffray
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Almost a no-brainer that there will be cheaper versions of iPhone.
Conceding that most investors consider his 45 million estimate “outrageously aggressive,” Munster supports it with a somewhat mysterious chart that compares the 409% year-to-year growth rate of the iPod in its breakout years with his estimate of just over 300% for the iPhone.
If a discount model comes out, it's very feasible!! 3G will also be a huge seller, gaining not only new clients but upgraders as well. With push email and better corporate features. And as the expand overseas markets, thats just more on top of the pile!
I see it as being very feasible! A discount model will help greatly tho and I hope they do that soon!
I am also resistant to signing a 2 year contract (as I have stated here many times before) and also to paying the likely increase in monthly fees compared to what I pay now, but a sufficiently inexpensive iPhone could be what it takes to overcome that resistance, both for myself and other people.
There is tremendous unexploited potential for iPhone sales beyond the bleeding-edge folks who bought the 1st gen. Also think about all of those folks who would gladly upgrade to the new iPhone!
Which is to say, this move has nothing to do with Virgin Records, although it might have something to do with Branson having some respect for the idea that recorded music is actually a product in itself, rather than just 'promotion'.
Bhuot - no one said anything about going to prison, or even fines or reporting on who customers are. It's a private business and like most they can terminate contracts for many reasons. However, given the way they are making money, false positives = lost customers.
As a Virgin Internet customer I'm in two minds - I don't like the idea of my ISP snooping my content, but I am realistic that I have a contract with a third party firm to get my internet access - and I expect that something similar is likely to come from most mainstream ISP.
It's the end of the Wild West pardners.