iSuppli: flash orders to drop 66% via Apple
updated 10:45 am EDT, Mon April 7, 2008
iSuppli Flash Order Drop
iSuppli today said it predicts a major drop in orders for NAND flash memory largely due to Apple. While the research group originally expected the value of orders to climb by 27 percent to peak at nearly $17.9 billion, it now estimates that growth to reach just $15.2 billion, or to grow by just a third at 9 percent. The overall drop is credited to reduced spending by US buyers unable to afford portable media players and other consumer electronics through defaults on subprime mortgages and the ripple effect it creates elsewhere in the world.
However, most of this is attributable to Apple as a benchmark, according to iSuppli. The company is the third-largest user of NAND flash for storage in its iPhones and iPods but has yet to make any large orders this year, suggesting that it doesn't expect a large spike in sales months later, as it did in 2007. Orders are still anticipated to increase overall but should reach $1.4 billion, or $400 million less than what Apple was initially expected to spend.
This comes in spite of new products from Apple that use flash memory. The optional solid-state drive for the MacBook Air "won't come close" to filling the gap, says the analyst group.
Suppliers are known to be cutting memory prices to compensate for overstock problems with hopes that Apple, SanDisk, Sony, and others will stock up on the cheaper memory in anticipation of the holidays this year.
something's wrong here...
04/07, 11:00am reply
Apple's sales are expected to be roughly the same as last year (with respect to flash based devices) and yet they are responsible for a 66% drop? Is this the new math that I always hear so much about?
Sales 2008 = Sales 2007 = 66% drop?
boulder1259
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Joined: May 2002
i suck at math
04/07, 11:05am reply
perhaps this means that the exponential climb of purchases is expected to level off. you can still have a huge number of sales without doubling YoY.
Hobeaux
Junior Member
Joined: Mar 2002
cheaper memory...
04/07, 11:32am reply
"Suppliers are known to be cutting memory prices to compensate for overstock problems with hopes that Apple, SanDisk, Sony, and others will stock up on the cheaper memory in anticipation of the holidays this year."
If Apple took advantage of the reduced pricing of the overstocked supplier of Flash memory, would Apple show "Good Karma" as Steve Jobs would say and pass those savings on to the consumer by reduced pricing?
MeandmyMac
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Joined: Feb 2008
headline is nonsense
04/07, 12:06pm reply
it sounds more like growth will be 66% less than previously expected, not that overall orders will drop 66%; it seems impossible for ordinary people to actually view the citation on isuppli.com, so one has to trust that at least the body of the article is right
sporobolus
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Joined: Apr 2008
Re: something's wrong
04/07, 12:47pm reply
It doesn't mean something is wrong. Even if Apple expects sales to match last year, they may have overestimated the amount of memory they needed last year, and ended up with a large warehouse of flash-based memory. If you've got a ton laying around, you don't need to buy more.
testudo
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Joined: Aug 2001
Doesn't Add Up
04/07, 01:36pm reply
If the 3G iPhone is to be expected within 60 days (per Walt Mossberg) and Apple has yet to place any Flash orders for 2008, what does that say about stock levels @ Apple? Did they really overbuy THAT much Flash last year that they are still stuck with them... I doubt their forecasting would be that off.
Abbi
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Joined: Jun 2007
Doesn't Add Up
04/07, 01:38pm reply
If the 3G iPhone is to be expected within 60 days (per Walt Mossberg) and Apple has yet to place any Flash orders for 2008, what does that say about stock levels @ Apple? Did they really overbuy THAT much Flash last year that they are still stuck with them... I doubt their forecasting would be that off. So either Walt is wrong or iSuppli is wrong about Apple's ordering patterns. - Abbi Vakil
Abbi
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Joined: Jun 2007
wise owl say:
04/07, 03:34pm reply
Maybe Apple is seeing the price of memory going down and before it jumps in and buys, it would like the price to drop just a little more. Less cost = more savings.
Also, if Apple is the third buyer of memory, why is iSupply worrying about them??? What is happening with the #1 and #2 buyers of memory???
Just stupid companies making stupid claims to get noticed. Also, maybe Apple has other suppliers or is ordering thru other channels so that the market does not know what its doing. Just a thought.
en
Eldernorm
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