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Kindle profits to top $1 billion by 2010; Citi

updated 04:10 pm EDT, Mon August 11, 2008

Kindle to sell $1.1b

Internet Analyst Mark Mahaney at Citi Investment Research is predicting the Kindle e-book reader offered exclusively by Amazon.com will sell 378,000 units this year, up from his previous estimates by a factor of two and well above the growth rate of Apple's iPod in its early years. His previous estimates of the $350 device's sales have also been bumped up from $750 million in revenue to $1.1 billion by 2010 or 4 percent of all of Amazon's business without taking into consideration a Kindle revision rumored to be released before the end of 2008.

Mahaney has no definitive numbers, as Amazon is not known to share its numbers freely, but points to the device's best-selling status, other reports of 240,000 units having been sold thus far in 2008, and educated estimates of 40,000 monthly sales. Mahaney does predict the busy fourth quarter leading up to the normally more hectic holiday shopping season will see 150,000 Kindles ship in just three months.

The Kindle was labeled as the "iPod of reading" on its annoucement and lets users purchase, download and read newspapers, magazine and books on its electronic paper display via a wireless Internet connection users can access for free. Pricing of content varies, but does represent a significant discount over their physical equivalents, with novels priced at about $10. [via Silicon Alley Insider]


Kindle sales vs. other portable electronic devices




Predicted Kindle sales numbers







By Electronista Staff
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  1. sfmitch

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Mar 2008

    +1

    Profits or Revenue

    I think you mistakenly put Profits in the title of this post when you should have put Revenue.

    Please check this out and make (any) necessary change.

  1. Guest

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Nov 1999

    +1

    Doesn't quite add up...

    Last I heard, Amazon was selling ebook content at a loss to hit the $9.99 price point. Few (if any) of the major publishers were lowering their wholesale prices below that. Amazon is selling the content at a loss to prime the pump for the market. I know I bought most of my Kindle books simply because they were cheaper than the real thing.

    Unless that selling-at-a-loss thing changes (quick), I'm not sure a ton of ebook sales is such a good thing for Amazon's bottom line.

  1. ClevelandAdv

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Jul 2004

    +2

    I don't get it?

    Pay $350, so I can pay $10 for book content in a less convenient format? Why does anyone think this thing is a good idea? Why do I need to carry multiple books around - unless they were reference books, and then I'd rather have them in something like a searchable pdf format.iPod -> Music != Kindle -> Books.I think Mr. Mahaney at Cit needs to re-think his bright assessment of the future sales of this device.The only possible way I see this device growing at some astronomical rate is if it gets some kind of Federal Department of education contract - which forces schools to buy it under the pretense that books cause global warming ....er sorry, climate change.

  1. testudo

    Forum Regular

    Joined: Aug 2001

    -4

    Re: I don't get it?

    Is that a question? Are you unsure you don't get it?

    And last I checked, people will spend $300 for an iPod to carry around music (albums at $10 a pop) and movies ($10 ) and TV shows.

    Why do you need more than one movie or album at a time?

    The point isn't to have all books in one place, it's to replace having a library of books. Physical media is dead, didn't you hear Steve say so.

  1. slider

    Mac Elite

    Joined: Oct 1999

    0

    Great

    Well, books aren't music. I'm a heavy reader and the kindle does not appeal to me. I like books.

    Anyways, great for Amazon. So now that they are doing so great with this can Amazon maybe take this thing off my Amazon start page and every other Amazon page I happen to nav to?

  1. simdude

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Jun 2004

    +1

    online library

    Apple should just set up on online library for the iPhone/itouch. Rent a book (for say 50 cents or $1) and you read on the iPhone. I've used eBooks on a Palm TX and it's easy to read in this format (especially with automatic scroll). The iPhone's screen is much better so books would be easy. Now, I take the one device on vacation and I'm set.

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