01/14/2009, 9:10am, EST
Wednesday, January 14thApple making 4GB iPhone, 7m total in Q1?
Apple is in the midst of building a new lower-cost iPhone that is helping the company manufacture record numbers of the handset in the first quarter of the year, according to UBS analyst Maynard Um. Specifying only "checks" within the industry, the financial expert claims an iPhone with 4GB of storage is in the works and is helping Apple boost the number of phones shipped to 7 million in the first three months of 2009. The figure would just the 6.9 million achieved during the iPhone 3G launch and potentially gives an edge over RIM, which sold 6.7 million BlackBerries through the late summer and early fall.
Details of the alleged new model are unknown; as-yet unverified rumors have pointed to an iPhone nano in progress for a June release, though a separate rumor has also alluded to a 4GB, full-size iPhone that hasn't materialized according to these unofficial plans.
Um nonetheless describes the 4GB model as potentially important; while it may cannibalize some sales that would go to 8GB models, he estimates that the likely significantly lower price would add about 1.5 million extra sales for customers who might otherwise resist today's $199 base price.
The UBS analyst is more cautious about the just-ended holiday quarter and warns Apple may have shipped less than 5 million iPhones despite the traditional seasonal spike. Macs may help Apple remain on target through both the launch of the new unibody MacBooks and a slew of reseller discounts.
Filed under: iPhone, Investor, gadgets, Apple
Other story tags: MacBook, UBS
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My guess
The "iPhone nano" isn't actually a nano, because it isn't smaller. Smaller doesn't help in this case. Smaller is more expensive, and the iPhone screen is too important to shrink.
Instead, expect an iPhone light (Apple will have a better name of course):
- 4 GB storage
- $99 price point (free w/contract in some regions)
- Removes GPS or 3G capability
- Some less-expensive components (cheaper body, screen, things of that nature)
- Fewer accessories in the box
- Likely to appear in multiple colors, but not at first
Savings
By my estimate, Apple could knock a whopping $4 off the price of the iPhone by releasing a 4GB iPhone. I base this off of the fact that an 8GB SD card can be had for $17, while a 4GB card costs $9. I then took half the difference, as Apple would get wholesale pricing and doesn't need the packaging of an SD module.
Granted, it's a rough estimate, but why can't a paid analyst spend the same five minutes I did and realize that there's no real cost reduction in a 4GB iPhone. Forget it, there's no $99 4GB iPhone in the near future. The price of the flash memory is insignificant.
(Yes, this means Apple's making a much heftier profit on the 16GB iPhone than on the 8GB, as their costs are far from $100 higher).
Storage
The difference in cost between 4 GB and 8 GB is tiny in reality. (like 10 dollars different) So they'd have to remove a lot more and the previous post points out.
USA at a disadvantage?
Has anyone realized that the iPhone is frequently cheaper abroad than in the U.S.? It is often available for free in Europe (in the UK, for example), and voice/data plans are often cheaper than the exorbitant AT&T $70 /month plan.
re: Savings
Apple is known to set a price based on features and not pure on production cost, its price differentiator. 4 GB is much less useful so it could be $100 cheaper.
Personally i don't think that smaller storage is a good option, its less room to buy apps. Apple is probably hoarding cheap 4GB chips but it can also use them for the iPods that hold 2 chips.
Duh?
"...is helping Apple boost the number of phones shipped to 7 million in the first three months of 2009." and
"in progress for a June release"
This makes no sense. If it isn't released until June, then it can't help boost iphones sold in the 1st quarter.
4GB is plenty for apps
Just sayin'.. if you go mostly apps, 4GB for these is plenty of space.. I have 3 full pages worth, and I don't think I'm even hitting 250M yet.. And this includes SimCity (which is pretty fully-featured)..
Honestly, if the 4G for $99 was available at the 3G launch, I would have gotten that instead..
all of a sudden
There's a lot about this article that makes no sense.
All I know is, that all of a sudden, everyone is getting iPhones, and if Apple makes cheaper ones, this trend will accelerate.
The iPhone is a little computer that can make phone call on the cellular network, a capability that strangely has been left out of the big Mac computers.
What I'm waiting for is when all of a sudden the two devices are combined.
Re: Savings
By my estimate, Apple could knock a whopping $4 off the price of the iPhone by releasing a 4GB iPhone. I base this off of the fact that an 8GB SD card can be had for $17, while a 4GB card costs $9.
Wow, based on that analysis, it seems to me that Apple is screwing over the people buying 16GB and 32GB iPod touches, because it certainly doesn't cost $80 more for a 16GB card, and it isn't $170 more for a 32GB card.
Re: all of a sudden
The iPhone is a little computer that can make phone call on the cellular network, a capability that strangely has been left out of the big Mac computers.
What I'm waiting for is when all of a sudden the two devices are combined.
Why the hell would anyone want that (OK, I can see apple wanting that, because Apple always is looking to add "features" that some people need in order to keep their prices high).
But, in the US, there's many different data networks, all with different requirements, signals, etc. To build such a feature into a Mac would require it to either support ALL standards, or to tie to a specific carrier. Neither makes any sense.
Especially when your Mac comes with a freakin' easy-to-use USB port to plug in a data card from your carrier (hey, everyone says adapters are fine for the MacBook and MacBook Air), or into that nice ExpressCard slot on your MBP.