Analyst: Google may sell just 1m Nexus Ones
updated 02:15 pm EST, Wed January 20, 2010
Citi expects Nexus One to have little impact
Citigroup researcher Mark Mahaney today estimated that Google may ship only a small number of Nexus One smartphones in 2010. The analyst expects as little as 1 million and as many as 3 million, and notes that it should have relatively little financial impact on the company, generating between $500 million and $1.6 billion. As Google is trying to stimulate sales by running low margins, each million units moved could actually cost it 1 percent of margin across the entire company.
The low turnout isn't a detailed prediction but counts on commonly observed limits on Google's sales potential. As it only sells the Nexus One online, it doesn't have the retail reach it would if it sold through T-Mobile stores or other channels. Choosing the fourth-largest carrier also limits exposure, as does the $530 price for a fully unlocked version to use with AT&T or for roaming on international carriers.
Google doesn't expect to hinge its Android business on the Nexus One and considers the HTC-made phone just one in a wider range of phones. Its status as a flagship phone may nonetheless be hurt as carrier-locked phones like the Motorola Droid could sell much more; Mahaney expects as many as 7.5 million Droids to ship in 2010. Outside competitors like the iPhone now regularly sell more than the Droid's amount every quarter.
Fresh-Faced Recruit
Joined: Nov 2008
Google is just helping to get its point across
that every company selling Android powered smartphones is helping to put a dent competitor OS's market share. I still believe Google's motive is strictly having lots of Android phones for getting mobile ad revenue. It is going to be hard for any one Android handset to stand out from the others if this Android phone-of-the-week barrage continues. The Motorola Motoroi looks even more outstanding than the Nexus One.