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IDC: iPad won't benefit Windows tablet PCs

updated 10:45 am EST, Mon March 8, 2010

Analysts see no effect on Windows from iPad

Apple's impending launch of the iPad won't have a "rising tide" effect on sales of Windows-based tablet PCs, IDC said in a new estimate today. While the Apple tablet could well be successful, the analysts don't expect that success to spill over to devices like the HP slate or the Lenovo IdeaPad U1. Windows tablets like these will get publicity but no large sales, IDC said.

How well Apple will fare will be harder for the research firm to track. As the iPad doesn't run a desktop operating system, its sales won't count in current metrics as actual computer sales.

Touch also isn't expected to play much of a role in conventional PCs. Desktops and notebooks with touchscreen displays, like HP's TouchSmart line, will gain "little traction" this year as they face a chicken-and-egg dilemma. Customers are hesitant to buy the more expensive systems without a lack of convincing software, but developers haven't been writing apps as touchscreen PCs are still in the minority.

Other aspects of the market are expected to play chiefly in Apple's favor. Sales of all-in-one desktops like the iMac are predicted to double and represent a tenth of the entire desktop computer business this year. Netbook sales, meanwhile, are expected to stall out and slow to the industry average for computer shipment increases. With the artificial limitations imposed by Intel and Microsoft leading to few differences between netbooks, and prices on full-size notebooks narrowing the gap, buyers will have little reason to opt for netbooks.

Other predictions see WiMAX-equipped notebooks overtaking 3G rivals in the year, the continued dominance of DVD in optical drives as a "good enough" option, and a slowdown in the absolute cost declines of computers as healthy demand reduces the incentives to cut prices.



By Electronista Staff
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Comments

  1. jpellino

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Oct 1999

    +6

    You don't say...?

    Did anyone think it would? Did iPod help Zune? Did iPhone help Windows CE - I mean PocketPC - I mean Windows Mobile - I mean Windows Phone 7?

  1. slapppy

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Mar 2008

    +3

    Breaking News

    Water is wet.

  1. sribe

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Jan 2003

    +1

    iPad sales

    I've said it before and I'll say it again: 10 million or more in the first 18 months ;-)

  1. Flying Meat

    Dedicated MacNNer

    Joined: Jan 2007

    +3

    Hmmmm.

    "hesitant to buy the more expensive systems without a lack of convincing software"

    Somethings not right here. I just can't lack my finger putting-on-it.

  1. sgirard

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Aug 2005

    +5

    "Deflating Effect"

    On the other hand, iPad might have a "deflating effect" on sales of netbooks and low-end laptops. I know my parents would be better off with an iPad (all they do is check email and surf the web), and there are a lot of people out there who don't need more than an iPad for their daily computing needs.

  1. Bobfozz

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Jul 2008

    +4

    Apple Research

    Anyone who thinks Apple didn't research all these avenues and competitors before launching the iPad is in a dream World.

    I've noticed that the jokes about the name "iPad" have virtually disappeared. I am sure Apple looked into that one too... it's too obvious not to. These jokes came fromt he usual little minds.

  1. iphonerulez

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Nov 2008

    +1

    Bill Gates dream tablet didn't catch on before...

    so why would it catch on now? Basically the ultimate Windows tablet is some sort of a keyboard-equipped convertible netbook running full Windows 7, multitouch, and a stylus for input. That's about as far from an iPad as you can get. Apparently, the Windows geek-users must want to do everything on a tablet that they can do on a $600-class notebook. Same processing power and same ports. I don't think that is even feasible while holding down the size, weight and battery life with present technology. Why they can't give up a few things for the extra portability I really don't understand. To me, it would be like preferring to use Microsoft Word over Simple Text to do a few emails and plain text letters.

    I love powerful processors and sure I'd like to take the power of a Mac Pro and somehow compress it into a tablet, but I know it can't be done (at least not now). Every system is a bunch of compromises. A smart company knows how to pick the most important functions for users and leaves out the rest, hoping to reach a good combination. I believe Apple has succeeded for the most part with the iPad. I would have liked it to have a dongle-less SD port and maybe a camera, but I don't consider those as deal-breakers. Low-tech consumers will not care one bit and should find the iPad more than satisfactory for day to day use.

  1. jragosta

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Oct 2008

    +1

    Bloat

    "I love powerful processors and sure I'd like to take the power of a Mac Pro and somehow compress it into a tablet, but I know it can't be done (at least not now)."

    I'm not sure it will ever be done. Well, it will one day be able to get the computing power of today's Mac Pro in a tablet size device, but software demands always grow at least as fast as hardware power, so I don't think you'll ever have the EQUIVALENT power in a small device.

    For example, I had a Mac IIsi, clock chipped to a whopping 25 MHz and loaded to the gills with 17 MB of RAM. Yet Microsoft Office, Quicken, Macintax, Photoshop, etc all ran at quite reasonable speed. Today, I'm using an iMac with Core 2 Duo 2.8 GHz, 4 GB RAM, and a video card 1000 times as fast as the one on the IIsi. Yet everything takes just as long. Hardware will never outpace the speed that lousy programmers will bloat their software.

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