Analyst sees VZ iPhone key to toppling Android

As much as 16.8 percent of all Verizon subscribers are "very likely" to switch to an iPhone if it becomes available on the network, Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty found in a study today. She discovered there was "pent up" demand for the phone at the network and that there was more of a call for Apple at Verizon than either AT&T or anywhere else. Just 14.6 percent of AT&T subscribers share the same interest, while 7.5 percent of US cellular customers echo the feeling.

Huberty didn't see Verizon availability coming at the expense of AT&T customers and cited the same complicated plan exits as AT&T's own Ralph de la Vega. As many are either on family or business plans, quitting solely to get the new device won't be an option for many. The analyst also pointed to the near-double ETF fee taking effect just before the new iPhone; it would act as a deterrent for most customers who sign up or renew after June 1st, including many who bought an iPhone 3G two years ago.

The addition is predicted to add 7-8 million new iPhones to Apple's yearly shipments and could boost Apple's US smartphone market share from 26 percent today to as much as 34 percent. Huberty didn't factor in the possibility of a Sprint iPhone.

A shift in market share of that size would likely come directly at the expense of Android and BlackBerry, both of which have their most secure footholds at Verizon. Many of RIM's record BlackBerry sales are owed to Buy One Get One deals at Verizon that provide a second BlackBerry for free; those who would opt for an iPhone instead would deprive RIM of two potential sales. Android phones are also now being included in these sorts of deals, including the Motorola Droid.

By Electronista Staff