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Adobe expects 53% of smartphones to use Flash by 2012

updated 02:40 pm EDT, Thu June 10, 2010

Adobe optimistic Flash will be majority feature

Adobe late Wednesday made aggressive predictions for the adoption of Flash on smartphones. It now expects 53 percent of the 300 million phones shipping in 2012 to support Flash. The developer also sees a total installed base of over 250 million smartphones using Flash the same year.

Technology strategy lead Anup Murarka didn't expect Apple to have a change of heart regarding Flash for the iPhone but reiterated that it might not matter. As Android, BlackBerry, Symbian, webOS and Windows Phone 7 should all have Flash 10.1 in the near future, Adobe would have the advantage of diversity to boost its numbers.

Much is riding on Flash for Adobe, as it's now an important part of the company's revenues. Murarka clarified, however, that nearly all of Adobe's revenue from Flash came from developer tools like Flash CS5, not the actual playback. Sites can normally use the Flash content they produce for free. The firm is hoping that Apple's iOS 4 rules banning cross-compiling tools will ultimately favor its choices as it could lead developers to reduce or cut iOS development due to the high cost of building a separate app version.

How well Adobe might succeed is still uncertain. After multiple delays, it finally launched Flash 10.1 beta for Android last month, but so far it can only target Nexus One owners who have already upgraded to Android 2.2. Phones shipping preloaded with Flash 10.1 aren't due to arrive until the second half of this year, and the beta has already been criticized for bogging down the web on those phones that use it.



By Electronista Staff
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Comments

  1. facebook_Tom

    Via Facebook

    Joined: Jun 2010

    +4

    and it might even work...

    ...but no one will care.

    Do you think folks are willing to wait another 2 years for an old technology to become mainstream on mobile? It has been 2 years and they are just now about to launch something that may work.

    Adobe needs to move on

  1. facebook_Tom

    Via Facebook

    Joined: Jun 2010

    +6

    and it might even work...

    ...but no one will care.

    Do you think folks are willing to wait another 2 years for an old technology to become mainstream on mobile? It has been 2 years and they are just now about to launch something that may work.

    Adobe needs to move on

  1. dliup

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Jan 2006

    +6

    lol

    In other words, 53% of phone users has 1 hour of battery life.

  1. Flying Meat

    Dedicated MacNNer

    Joined: Jan 2007

    +1

    Separate app version?

    "The firm is hoping that Apple's iOS 4 rules banning cross-compiling tools will ultimately favor its choices as it could lead developers to reduce or cut iOS development due to the high cost of building a separate app version."

    Why wouldn't developing a Flash version be considered developing a separate app version? I'm just asking.

  1. Roehlstation

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Aug 2001

    +6

    And I expect...

    ...to see John Cusack flying an airplane under falling building debris in 2012.

  1. pairof9s

    Mac Enthusiast

    Joined: Jan 2008

    +2

    Difference

    Having Flash on the phone is not the same as using Flash on the phone.

    Like many of us who have Flash on our browsers, we've subsequently chosen to disconnect Flash (Clcik2Flash) or have ignored the thousands of intrusive Flash-based ads on sites. I can only imagine this will be the case w/ phone users, where the experience surely won't be better than what's offered on desktops/laptops.

  1. ebeyer

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Jun 2004

    +2

    Still?

    So Adobe's saying there's still gonna be flash in 2012? Move on, already.

  1. dashiel

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Sep 2001

    +7

    …and there's the rub

    what's the number one use of flash? advertising, everything from simple banner ads to huge immersive experiences. anyone looking for a mobile ad buy is faced with either doubling their budget and producing a flash experience for 53% of phone and html5 for the other 47%. considering the more limited capabilities of mobile devices the delta between what flash can accomplish and html/css/js is considerably smaller than on the desktop, and who knows, by 2012 might not exist at all. most clients/ad agencies are going to opt for a single budget that hits 100% of mobile clients.

    the swf format is dead. flash is to the mobile web, what shockwave was to the web, an attempt to shoehorn an old content development platform in to a new content delivery mechanism.

  1. BTBlomberg

    Forum Regular

    Joined: Sep 2005

    +3

    Yeah, sure...

    Flash developers that know anything about flash and aren't just graphic design students trying to be programmers, will tell you Flash is not a touch based environment. It needs a mouse type of interaction. So, Adobe can get Flash working on these devices, but it won't do most of the things the "programmers" set it up to do. So they will have it on phones, but it will need to be optimized to each device and older devices will get left out, it will heat up the phone and drain the battery, and it won't work right. So it will be a horrible, crippled experience unless all you do is watch videos that would work better without Flash.

    Way to ride a dead horse.

    They should really just work on making a version of the Flash development tool for HTML5 and stop crying.

  1. dimmer

    Mac Enthusiast

    Joined: Feb 2006

    +4

    While, on the other hand...

    By 2012, how many mobile devices will have HTML5 support? I'd suggest maybe 95%. Maybe a low-ball figure.

    Kinda like asking how many computers can run MS-DOS applications.

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