ATT could ride iPhone to top spot by next year

AT&T may take advantage of its last days of iPhone exclusivity to reclaim the top spot in US carriers by next year, IE Market Research said today in a new study. AT&T's higher growth rate over its rival Verizon in the spring was a sign to analysts that it should claim the lead by spring 2011. By 2014, AT&T would still have a comfortable lead with 34.8 percent of the market versus Verizon's 32.5 percent.

Verizon would be the most profitable on its service in the next year, IEMR said, but AT&T would gain the edge in that area by 2014.

The accuracy of the predictions isn't certain. AT&T's iPhone activations have often made up for considerably weaker growth in other areas and have been helped by an exclusive that forces those on other networks if they want an iPhone. Competing researchers have noted that AT&T is worried about non-exclusivity and could lose much of its edge as customers could either stay on Verizon or switch back from AT&T if a Verizon iPhone ships early next year.

The study also discounts the effect of Android, which may overtake iPhones in absolute user base and are already suspected of having larger market share today. AT&T is adding Android phones in an attempt to diversify its line, but half of all Google-based phones in the US are on Verizon.

By Electronista Staff