iSuppli says flash prices to crash by late 2010

Flash memory prices could crash to a dollar a gigabyte this year but might not be enough to kindle a resurgence in SSDs, iSuppli warned today. Prices for memory were just over $2 for 1GB of standard NAND flash memory at the start of the year, but they have fallen steeply enough that they could reach $1.20 for a dense three-bit-per-cell chip by the fall and just $1 at the very end of 2010.

The pricing has raised the possibility of a resurgence in interest for SSDs, many of which have still been too expensive to use in the mainstream. Costs so low haven't been seen for two years and may finally be accompanied by enough stock, unlike when chronic shortages forced price hikes in the past.

Analysts at iSuppli, however, are doubtful of any effect. They note that hard drives have grown rapidly since 2008 and are low cost enough that the gap may be too wide for SSDs to recover. Internal drives now regularly top out at 2TB where SSDs approaching 1TB cost over $1,000 and often need large enclosures. External drives now peak at 3TB.

Flash might need to get as low as 40 cents per 1GB by 2012 to make a meaningful impact. At that price, an SSD with a practical, formatted 100GB of space would cost about $50. Shortages in regular two-bit memory could keep prices from falling in that area, but the three-bit memory found in many memory cards and USB thumbdrives, as well as some media players, could fall rapidly.

An overall drop in flash memory prices would likely help determine the capacities of many handheld devices, especially Apple's iPads, iPhones and iPods. It remainds one of the largest flash memory users in the world and often helps determine the price will be. Apple has been known to trigger shortages on its own as it orders large batches of memory for the run-up to a new iPhone or iPod unveiling.

By Electronista Staff