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BlackBerry share seen tumbling by 2012

updated 11:25 am EDT, Fri August 20, 2010

Analyst sees BlackBerry losing influence quickly

RIM's BlackBerry phones could start losing market share much quicker than expected, Morgan Stanley analyst Ehud Gelblum warned on Friday. He downgraded the smartphone maker's stock to "underweight" as he expected BlackBerry share to bleed down to 13.1 percent and not a previously thought 16 percent; RIM has 18.2 percent share today.

Gelblum pointed to modest sales of the Torch as a sign that a flagship BlackBerry no longer caught the public's interest, but he saw outside competitors as larger threats. Android has undermined some of RIM's share, he said. An increasing number of companies are either moving to other platforms or letting workers choose their own smartphones, which in many cases leads them to choose an iPhone or Android device over a BlackBerry.

Possible service bans in India, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and other countries could also have a direct impact as users could feel pressured into switching platforms to get full services.

A drop of the sort would have Apple and possibly Google overtake RIM within the next two years, pushing it down to third or fourth place. A purely product-based recovery isn't visible in the near future as both the Torch and upcoming leaked BlackBerries are considered only very mild updates where the iPhone 4, as well as most HTC and Motorola devices, have been major revisions of phones a year old or less.

By Electronista Staff


  1. SockRolid

    Forum Regular

    Joined: Jan 2010


    RIM is the new Palm

    Palm couldn't and/or wouldn't develop Palm OS fast enough to stay ahead of the game. The market was their to lose and they lost it. RIM appears to be doing the same.

    RIP RIM.

  1. SockRolid

    Forum Regular

    Joined: Jan 2010


    Make that "theirs to lose"

    Better proofreading next time...

  1. komentarz

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Dec 2009



    Can't we just wait until 2012 and then see what the real numbers are?

    Analysts, Analysts, Analysts...

  1. dimmer

    Mac Enthusiast

    Joined: Feb 2006


    We could...

    But what would be the point? Yesterday's news tomorrow? Sure, the disastrous Torch sales figures don't make forecasting very difficult, but still...

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