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Apple seen shipping more iPads in 2011 than Android combined

updated 12:55 pm EDT, Mon September 27, 2010

Analyst says 25.5m iPads, 6m Galaxy Tabs in 2011

Apple is poised to control the tablet market for at least the next year, Canaccord Genuity analyst T. Michael Walkley said today. He estimated that Apple would ship 13.4 million iPads in 2010 and 25.5 million in 2011. The next closest, Samsung's Galaxy Tab, would reach 1.5 million by the end of the year and move another six million in 2011.

He saw the combined Android platform faring better, with Dell and Motorola contributing two million and three million tablets of their own next year, but Apple would still have the lion's share due to both its headstart and its positive UI experience. It may also be "conservative" as shortages are still expected to run through at least the end of the year. If Apple can improve its scale, iPad numbers might go higher, Walkley said.

Android would gain some ground but by contrast "could struggle" against the iPad. The researcher noted that Google itself admitted Android 2.2 wasn't optimized for tablets and wouldn't say whether or not Android 3.0, usually codenamed Gingerbread, would address the problem. Most apps currently have to be custom-written to use the extra screen size, and stock interface elements don't usually scale correctly.

Having a release schedule subject to Google's release schedule for Android also reduced the amount of control over when and how a tablet would arrive. Companies have had tablet hardware ready but haven't launched due to a wait on Google, Walkley said.

The predictions may also lean further still in favor of Apple due to other platforms' stalled efforts. Walkley factored two million RIM-created tablets into 2010 sales and five million into 2011, but recent details have suggested that a BlackBerry tablet is far away. RIM is rumored to be rearchitecting its tablet platform and possibly the whole BlackBerry line to use QNX's real-time OS as its foundation, a project that could leave the tablet months away.



By Electronista Staff
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Comments

  1. bonaccij

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Jun 2003

    +4

    Who cares?

    I wish everyone would focus on giving people a good product. Enough with this "iPad/iPhone Killer" nonsense. Apple has a success. It's up to the other manufacturers to make something that will also compete. To date, there hasn't really been anyone out there to really compete. I think Android could - but you are right... they are just taking too long to get it to market.

    It seems like such a simple equation; Good Platfom+Good UI+Software Tie-in=Really good sales. I just don't get why other manufacturers can't get it. Another thing, enough with everyone mimicking the iPad. Think of something different, folks. We get it - black bezel = cool. Why don't they even TRY to do something different?

    Sigh... nobody innovates anymore.

  1. Jonathan-Tanya

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Oct 2004

    0

    disagree

    I highly doubt an analyst that has rated the Galaxy Tab so high - the Galaxy Tab is nice, but it will give ground as new tablets come out from even more highly regarded companies - Dell, Motorola, Sharp - Sony would be a big name, if we get one from Sony in 2011. It seems like its getting all this attention because it is being released first - well an analyst is supposed to go beyond today and look at the future. The Galaxy Tab won't be so special when they have intense competition, as they will in 2011.

    Apple will do well in the U.S. - here, they are priced aggressively and they don't require a contract.

    But even so, we will see a host of tablets coming in at $199 contract free - way undercutting Apple's price.

    Worldwide, where the line between Tablet and Phone is completely blurred, and where they are more price sensitive, and where Android is offering many more choices - I expect Android to quickly catch up to the iPad.

    Still if Apple comes up with a 7" iPad (because I want one that is lighter and more portable) - that would be sweet.

  1. testudo

    Forum Regular

    Joined: Aug 2001

    +3

    yawn...

    Another week, another set of useless analysis from some useless analyst telling us what will/won't happen in the future.

    All hoping they're magical prediction is correct so they can then go on their web site and add it to their "look what we got right!" page, while the others try to hide the fact that they guessed wrong.

  1. iphonerulez

    Dedicated MacNNer

    Joined: Nov 2008

    +4

    The iHaters just can't stand Apple being

    the tablet market leader even if the product is good. They always think that something else is coming along with a lot more features and cheaper, too.

    >But even so, we will see a host of tablets coming in at $199 contract free - way >undercutting Apple's price.
    This statement is just fantasy BS. There is no way this can happen within the next 18 months. How about $599 or $699 contract free.

    I don't know why pundits assume that tablets can be built for next to nothing. How is a 10" tablet going to be built for $199 when that is the going price for a subsidized 4" smartphone. You people should check into component costs when iSuppli does its product pricing reports. I think you people are looking at too many Shanzai tablets which are simply c***-tablets like what Archos makes. A good tablet won't cost the price of a netbook for quite a while and only a fool will think such a thing. Companies don't want to sell some profitless tablet device because it doesn't make any sense for their business.

    Most of these so-called iPad killer companies bit off more than they can chew and that's why you don't see any competing tablets and none of them are going to be cheaper than the iPad unless they're way down on quality. There is no way to compete with a company that's selling products based on production quantities of tens of millions. There's no way to lower component costs with a production run of only a million units, if that much. They could build tablets with more features but certainly not less expensive. That's exactly what Samsung did. Now Samsung has to listen to the shouts of the cheapsters that claim the Galaxy Tab is an overpriced ripoff because they're charging users what the tablet cost them to build on a low production scale.

    You iHaters should face the reality that Apple has the tablet market sewn up until Korea and China start building factories that are geared strictly for tablet production. Meanwhile Apple is going to clean up in profits leaving most rival companies to suck up pennies.

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