updated 06:20 pm EST, Tue November 9, 2010
Forrester says e-books at 1b dollars in 2010
E-books are nearly a $1 billion business and should triple in size, Forrester said in a new forecast. The business should reach $966 million in e-books sold in 2010 alone and should triple to $3 billion in 2015. Book reading should be "forever altered" by that point, even if color e-paper and advancements to the books themselves don't take place, analyst James McQuivey said.
He pointed to the habits of those with the Amazon Kindle, iPad and other e-readers as a sign of what was likely to happen. Only seven percent of Internet-aware adults read e-books, but those who read digitally at all use it 41 percent of the time, moving up to 66 percent for those with a focused device. These readers are more likely to pay for books instead of borrowing them and may establish paid digital books as a pattern.
The shift to e-books was likely to have the same impact that digital music and movies have had, McQuivey explained. It would only be a matter of time before the "whole structure gets torn down" and traditional, physical bookstores had to be replaced with online stores.
Forrester's look came just as Amazon has loosened up its periodical deals to encourage as much adoption and distribution as possible. Apple is also commonly believed to be developing an iPad newsstand that could make magazines and newspapers a cornerstone of its reading experience.