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Android activations level at 214K per day, hint at slowdown

updated 05:45 pm EST, Mon December 6, 2010

Android activations hit 214K per day in slowdown

Google's Android sales rate may have leveled off, according to details the company gave out with the Nexus S launch on Monday. It reported that it was activating about 1.5 million Android devices of all kinds each week, or just over 214,000 devices each day. The figure is just a small step up from 200,000 per day in August and a much smaller increase than with its previous growth rate.

The number would also come in spite of the addition of tablets like the Samsung Galaxy Tab, which accounted for one million sales in its two months in stores. Google's activation rates only for smartphones may have been virtually unchanged as a result, since it would have had to activate about 16,700 Galaxy Tabs each day.

A slowdown was inevitable as every platform matures, since the company has a practical ceiling to the limit of the number of people it can reach. Google also may clarify its results with Engineering VP Andy Rubin's appearance at D: Dive Into Mobile tonight or else another event. The company hasn't commented on the figures.

If consistent, the activation rate would nonetheless come at a dangerous time for Google, which is in the height of a holiday shopping where Apple is expected to ship more than the 14.1 million iPhones from summer with a healthier supply and wider distribution. A Verizon iPhone next year could also dampen Google's results by drawing away customers that had wanted an iPhone but weren't willing to jump to AT&T. [via Fortune]


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By Electronista Staff
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  1. iphonerulez

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Nov 2008

    +2

    It was probably the rumor of the iPhone definitely

    coming to Verizon that caused this slowdown. Verizon customers probably figured they might as well wait for the smartphone they really wanted. I don't care what the real reason is. I'm just hoping that Android growth can't spiral rapidly upward forever. There has to be some leveling off eventually although this seems rather early.

  1. SockRolid

    Forum Regular

    Joined: Jan 2010

    +3

    Slowdown? Wait till iPhone hits Verizon.

    I wonder what the line is for Android sales slumping when Verizon finally gets iPhone. 25% drop? 35% drop? 60% drop? I'm sure you can place your bets somewhere in Vegas right now.

    My wild guess is 40% Android sales slump in the first 365 days of Android sales on VZ, with further declines over time.

  1. facebook_Tom

    Via Facebook

    Joined: Dec 2010

    -4

    Oh no !

    Right after I bought the Google Nexus One (from http://amzn.to/hqbvd9) this announcement came out ! :(

  1. Jonathan-Tanya

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Oct 2004

    +4

    @RockSolid Your guess is wrong

    Verizon is an american cell phone company. These figures are about worldwide activations.

    To undrestand the issue, take a look at this chart:

    http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0933605.html

    Cell phones by country - all values rounded to nearest 50 million.

    1. China: 550 million
    2. European Union: 450 million
    3. India: 350 million
    4. U.S.: 250 million
    5. Russia: 150 million

    Now that is all cell phones, not smart phones only.
    That is total owned, not the rate of purchase.

    But - the point being is, the U.S. is only a small fraction of the cell phone market.
    Verizon is just 1/3 of that small fraction.

    It just isn't going to have the 40% slump you predict - even in the most wildest of fantasies - where 100% of all Android sales in the U.S. are eradicated overnight - you wouldn't have a 40% slump in activations.

    Your math just isn't right - it's just an "america is the whole world" mentality.

  1. wrenchy

    Forum Regular

    Joined: Nov 2009

    +2

    @SockRolid


    The only drop-off you'll see is AT&T iPhone subscribership as they jump ship to the big V.

    The Little Green Robots will keep marching along doing what they do best. Destroying iPhone market share.

  1. Jonathan-Tanya

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Oct 2004

    +1

    Verizon impact

    The impact of iPhone on Verizon - against world wide activations - probably won't be registered at all as a difference.

    The reason being, that while that is an important thing for Apple to do - it will then be offset by the growth of smartphones in China, India, Brazil, and Russia where Apple has been sidelined as a niche player - and Android takes advantage - the combined advantage of these countries - far overwhelms Apple's - U.S. advantage.

    And I think Apple could have the advantage in the U.S. with the Verizon move.

    Google only counts cell phone activations, and there are all kinds of google phones that don't require activation - let alone non-phone devices.

    But so be it, the activation figure is still a fun figure to watch.

  1. xfrgtr

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Sep 2010

    -3

    android

    ios is dead

  1. Greengo

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: May 2010

    -1

    @Jonathan-Tanya

    As you may think you're looking at the big picture, what you may be missing is the big picture. There are many Android fans that believe that Apple/iPhone has peeked and is now saturated. Even though the numbers keep getting better for Apple. But you mention places like China that has "sidelined" the iPhone but fail to realize that the iPhone isn't available on the largest China Carrier "China Mobile" (also the largest Carrier in the world) which has roughly 560 Million subscribers alone (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mobile_network_operators). Android is already available in most countries on almost all carriers and Apple is really only starting to get in the game and move away from single carriers in Countries. Once the playing field is set (both Android and Apple on all the same carriers) that's when the game really begins.

    That all being said, I totally agree with your comments about Verizon and it "hurting" Android sales...it will in the US to a degree, but won't affect Android as much as RockSolid suggests.

  1. testudo

    Forum Regular

    Joined: Aug 2001

    -1

    'slowing down'

    If consistent, the activation rate would nonetheless come at a dangerous time for Google, which is in the height of a holiday shopping where Apple is expected to ship more than the 14.1 million iPhones from summer with a healthier supply and wider distribution.

    I don't understand the thinking. Wouldn't activations slow down BEFORE the holidays, as people start buying up iPhones and other such things for gift giving? Or does everyone not only buy the phone, but activate it up before the holidays to hand over to their blushing loved one?

    And these are figures from September, which one might assume be slower than August as, I don't know, people were buying up stuff for 'start of the school year' kind of thing. So even if the holiday sales required pre-activation, that would be seen as something that would be coming in November/December.

    Are these the same analysts who would say "Well, Apple sold only 2 million Macs in the Jan-March quarter, down from 4 million in the previous quarter. If this continues, Apple will be out of business in 6 months."

  1. DerekMorr

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Mar 2010

    +1

    Rubin claims 300,000/day

    http://www.androidcentral.com/android-activations-now-number-over-300k-daily

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