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Apple expected to lead tablet market through at least 2011

updated 07:55 am EST, Fri December 17, 2010

JPMorgan says iPad to have 61pc share in 2011

Apple should have the majority of the tablet market for at least all of 2011, JPMorgan analyst Mark Moskowitz said on Friday. Starting from an estimated 83.3 percent of the market this fall, the iPad would drop but still hold on to 61.7 percent in 2011. Most of the drop would only come in the summer, when Android 3.0 tablets would ship in earnest.

The iPad would see a steep drop off at the end of 2011, but Moskowitz estimated that Apple would still have the largest individual share for a manufacturer in 2012 at 44.3 percent. He didn't say how much of the share would be divided by operating systems, where Android would still be the main rival. HTC, LG, Motorola, Samsung and numerous others are planning models with Android 3.0, but with the exception of Samsung, most have held off since they didn't feel Google's OS was ready for tablets.

Much of the continued grip would come from the tablet market inherently playing into Apple's strengths, the analyst explained. While an app-heavy model was relatively simple to replicate, Apple had a movie and TV service ecosystem that weren't likely to have equivalents from competitors for awhile. The physical design itself and the OS "robustness" also played a role, Moskowitz wrote.

The remakes conspicuously omitted RIM's BlackBerry PlayBook as a significant factor from the sales and suggested that RIM wouldn't repeat its early smartphone lead in the tablet arena. The company in its results call on Thursday hinted that it wouldn't sell the PlayBook until March, just before a second-generation iPad is expected and possibly as the earliest Android 3.0 tablets arrive.



By Electronista Staff
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Comments

  1. bonaccij

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Jun 2003

    +4

    How Can ANYONE...

    ... make a statement like:

    "The iPad would see a steep drop off at the end of 2011, but Moskowitz estimated that Apple would still have the largest individual share for a manufacturer in 2012 at 44.3 percent."

    That is JUST RIDICULOUS. There aren't really any other devices out there! Why don't we wait and see what people actually bring to the table??? What on EARTH is he basing this from? This is exactly the kind of thing that makes the idiots out there say "Well, by next year..."

    The truth is NOBODY has ANY IDEA what is going to happen in 2011 and you just can't predict it. Remember what was supposed to be the runaway hit of this season? Yeah... exactly...

  1. pairof9s

    Mac Enthusiast

    Joined: Jan 2008

    +2

    RE: How Can ANYONE...

    Yeah, but that's how they make their living...convincing you that they sound like they know what they're talking about so you'll invest or sell w/ them. Doesn't really matter if the information is factual...just whether you believe it is.

    /

  1. coffeetime

    Mac Enthusiast

    Joined: Nov 2006

    +1

    Like attracts like

    Clueless analysts are for clueless investors. MS and Nokia needs these type of people to survive.

  1. freddymac

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Jul 2010

    -1

    analysts?

    I think it's more like ANALysts................

  1. iphonerulez

    Dedicated MacNNer

    Joined: Nov 2008

    -2

    There's absolutely nothing they can base

    their projections on. There hasn't been any past tablet market as there is now. Maybe they're basing it on the smartphone market. Still, they should wait for shipping rival products before making such a projection. They have no idea how consumers will take to a flood of 7" Android tablets. If they basing it on Galaxy Tab sales, then Android tablets wouldn't fare too well at all. It doesn't make any difference what figures the analysts project. It will be what it will be. The iPad 2 will likely be more useful than iPad 1 and that alone should give it excellent sales. I doubt that any company manufacturer a higher quality tablet and manage to undercut the iPad's price.

  1. climacs

    Dedicated MacNNer

    Joined: Sep 2001

    +1

    analysts also said

    that iPod couldn't possibly hold on to an 80%+ share of the MP3 player market...

  1. AtlantaX

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Dec 2010

    -1

    Unreal

    Wow, in other news, these same people predict that the sun will come up tomorrow, we will see cold temperatures in the next month, and spring will come sometime around March 21.

    This is meaningless fodder by people who want you to think they understand Apple and the markets they are so-called experts on. Fact is, they have missed on this marketplace for years and now they are scrambling to regain credibility. They are all worthless armchair quarterbacks.

  1. dimmer

    Mac Enthusiast

    Joined: Feb 2006

    0

    Yeah...

    44.3% -- ain't that a great figure? It implies that the figure will be between 44.25% and 44.35% -- but, as in math class, you need to show your work.

    This guy is making guesses: educated ones perhaps, but guesses none the less. He'd actually be more credible if he was less specific -- say that Apple will still have around half of all tablet sales, for example.

    Personally, I think Apple will retain their hold on tablets just as they have with iPods: there just doesn't seem to be anything viable in the works to upset that.

  1. driven

    Addicted to MacNN

    Joined: May 2001

    0

    LOL

    I see everyone else already commented on exactly what I was going to say.

    You take a guess of various numbers. Put them on a dart board, throw a dart and publish the one you hit. It has as much of a chance of being accurate as anyone else's guess. There is simply no way to come up with a number here that isn't anything more than a GUESS.

    What a pointless report. Yet, this guy gets paid for making such guesses. We should all be so lucky.

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