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Verizon iPhone 'first true test' for Android, says analyst

updated 10:10 am EST, Mon January 10, 2011

 

Could account for 8-12M iPhones in 2011


The prospect of a Verizon iPhone will be the "first true test" for Android, argues Kaufman analyst Shaw Wu. While the Android platform is currently selling better than the iPhone, Wu notes that until now, Verizon subscribers have not had much choice beyond Android in terms of smartphones. BlackBerry, Windows, webOS and Nokia phones are described as "weak competition" versus Android.

The analyst points out that Verizon may need the iPhone, as it has lost some share to AT&T during the last two quarters. He in fact argues that Verizon may be willing to pay Apple extra to prevent the device from appearing on T-Mobile or Sprint, at least in the foreseeable future. Apple should nevertheless gain access to a subscriber base of 93 million people.

Wu expects Apple to ship 63 million iPhones in 2011, of which 8 to 12 million could come from Verizon. This assumes an incremental 2 to 3 million per quarter, with some sales taken from AT&T. The change would add roughly $1 to $2 in annual earnings per share.


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By Electronista Staff

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iPhone, Investor, industry, Verizon, Google, Android, Apple

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  1. slapppy

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Mar 2008

    0
    01/10, 10:44am | report spam | reply

    Android is given away for free

    Hey Anal-yst. Adroid is free to any POS smartphone maker. Gee I wonder if that has anything to do with its growth? lol


  1. Feathers

    Grizzled Veteran

    Joined: Oct 1999

    -5
    01/10, 10:53am | report spam | reply

    Getting up my nose!

    Maybe we should start referring to it as Adenoid because it's really starting to get up my nose!


  1. jreades

    Junior Member

    Joined: Feb 1999

    +5
    01/10, 12:43pm | report spam | reply

    Because no one lives outside America...


    So, according to Kaufman, Android and iOS haven't been battling it out across Europe and Japan for the past two years? Come on, a bit of a wider perspective perhaps?


  1. Jonathan-Tanya

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Oct 2004

    -3
    01/10, 01:37pm | report spam | reply

    Android has moved way beyond Verizon

    Apple is just now getting at Verizion - meanwhile my local grocery store has an Android phone as part of it's end-cap display.

    And sorry Apple fans, but these low end Android fans are the real deal - they provide the smartphone experience. I have a low end phone, and it's not lacking.

    It provides a great web experience, has an app store with hundreds of thousands of apps, it even plays angry birds - yep, its all about angry birds, I know.

    Suggesting that its cheap - just means you haven't tried it, I'm using the Optimus T on T-mobile.

    But this is another area where Android excels, and Apple is non existent. And prepay is a huge growth market in the U.S. - but outside the U.S. prepay is even the majority market.

    The Verizon move is good for Apple, but not enough to test Android - that's absurd.
    If Apple really wanted to test Android, they'd compete downmarket - they don't, they won't, and it's androids for the taking.


  1. Jonathan-Tanya

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Oct 2004

    0
    01/10, 01:44pm | report spam | (1 reply) | reply

    Outside U.S. = prepay is the majority market

    If you want to crunch the numbers, consider that first adopters were high end - the next wave of adopters, are the low end.

    Outside the U.S., prepay is the MAJORITY of the market. Apple has no phones targeted at the next wave of adopters, and no phones targeted at the majority of the marketplace.

    Given these facts, who is going to win in terms of marketshare? Not Apple, that's a certainty.

    In terms of profits? Well Google doesn't make the phones - they make software, and software is certainly high margin.

    In the near term, I don't expect anyone to knock Apple off in terms of profits, however, in the long run the failure to capture the market, will be what is looked back upon as the turning point. And Google's strategy is very much high margin, and market winning both.




  1. bjojade

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Jun 2007

    +2
    01/10, 02:43pm | report spam | reply

    High margin?

    You do realize that Google gives away the Android OS for FREE. They don't make a penny off of the OS. What they DO make money on is the advertising revenue that comes from the phones, which is staggering.

    Android apps are most often free, but you get bombarded with ads. Angry birds is a great example. You constantly have to look at advertisements when playing the game. There is no option to pay $2 to make them go away.

    I really wish that in the US they would do away with hardware exclusivity for cell phone carriers. I understand subsidized phone deals, but if you buy a phone, you should be able to use it on ANY compatible carrier you choose. Locking the phone to one carrier sucks. You should choose your carrier based on service quality, not on the type of phone you want.


  1. testudo

    Forum Regular

    Joined: Aug 2001

    +2
    01/10, 06:11pm | report spam | reply

    Re: High margin?

    You do realize that Google gives away the Android OS for FREE. They don't make a penny off of the OS. What they DO make money on is the advertising revenue that comes from the phones, which is staggering.

    Um, so they are making money off the OS? And they don't give it away for free. You have to license it from them (if you plan on using their apps, which is where the money is).

    Android apps are most often free, but you get bombarded with ads. Angry birds is a great example. You constantly have to look at advertisements when playing the game. There is no option to pay $2 to make them go away.

    How is this Android's fault? Many games on iOS have 'free' versions with ads and pay versions without. How exactly does Android/Google get blamed because the developer doesn't offer a pay option?


  1. Hash

    Mac Elite

    Joined: Apr 2001

    0
    01/23, 10:35am | report spam | reply

    comment title

    You realize that Android is based on stolen code and is a subject to legal measures?


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