updated 02:25 pm EST, Mon February 28, 2011
JPMorgan says tablet cannibalizing PCs more
JPMorgana analyst Mark Moskowitz warned on Monday that tablets were only likely to cannibalize notebooks much more in the next two years. With as many as 18.9 percent of tablets having replaced a netbook or notebook in 2010, he expected that rate to surge to 32.1 percent in 2011 and 35.1 percent in 2012. Android 3.0 and the imminent new iPad would both eat further into computers, especially the netbook market, the analyst estimated.
He lowered his predictions for the growth in PC sales from 9.5 percent to seven percent and anticipated tablets chewing as much as 10 percent of the total possible notebook market for this year.
The iPad would still be the leader in 2011, Moskowitz said, but would lose much of its near-monopoly from 2010 to Android. He estimated that Apple would still have an absolute majority in 2011 at 60.8 percent, but this would fall to it simply being the largest at 44.6 percent the next year. Apple's ability to master profit margins and keep prices up could, however, have it getting 60.5 percent of tablet revenues in 2012, even as more competitors came into the market.
Apple is only just now getting competitors that have tablet-optimized interfaces about a year after the iPad arrived. The Motorola Xoom is just now shipping with Android 3.0 and will be joined by the LG Optimus Pad and Samsung Galaxy Tab 10.1 soon. RIM is also getting into tablets for the first time with the BlackBerry PlayBook, and the HP TouchPad may make webOS one of the few non-Android platforms competitive with Apple.