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Analyst: Up to 20 percent of iPad 1 buyers may upgrade

updated 12:40 pm EST, Fri March 11, 2011

Most buyers likely new

About 15 to 20 percent of iPad 1 owners will upgrade to the iPad 2 during the next year, claims RBC Capital Markets' Mike Abramsky. Even though many iPad 2 buyers may be new to the platform, the analyst suggests they will contribute to 28 million in total sales by the end of 2011. He adds that many people have likely been waiting for a second-gen model in order to get a sense of upgrades and the popularity of tablets in general.

Abramsky joins other analysts in predicting sales of over 500,000 units during the iPad 2's launch weekend. The company will likely be helped by much wider distribution, including not just Apple, AT&T and Best Buy but Verizon, Target and Walmart. If inventory is better than anticipated, Abramsky comments, launch sales could beat estimates.

The overall tablet market is forecast to grow to about 50 million units during 2011, of which 28 million iPad 2s would represent 56 percent. The figure would technically represent a decline in Apple's marketshare, since it was 83 percent in 2010, but only because the device had virtually no competition. The Samsung Galaxy Tab was the first device considered to be a genuine contender against the iPad.


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Comments

  1. testudo

    Forum Regular

    Joined: Aug 2001

    -1

    well

    That either means that the iPad 2 isn't that much of an upgrade to the iPad 1 to warrant those users upgrading, and/or iPad 1 users are generally happy with their device and don't see any need/want to update.

    Comment buried. Show
  1. testudo

    Forum Regular

    Joined: Aug 2001

    -14

    Or...

    It means 80% of iPad 1 users are going to be upgrading to a Xoom.

  1. trenchcoat77

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Aug 2003

    +9

    Better analysis

    99.99% of MacNN readers would like to have testudo STFU.

  1. dpicardi

    Forum Regular

    Joined: Sep 2006

    0

    I find this figure low

    I'd be will to lay a lot of money that more than 2/5ths to 1/2 of iPad 1 buyers will by a new iPad in the next 12 months. Whether that will be an iPad 2 or an Ipad 3 is anyones guess.

  1. global.philosopher

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Sep 2010

    0

    Every popular web site needs its troll.

    Sort of like a site mascot.

  1. SwissMac

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Aug 2006

    0

    Conservative estimate, false premise

    First off, I guess this estimate of sales is a Conservative estimate, just like in the early years of Windows they didn't see it having more than 33% market share... Apple has made a habit of beating analysts estimates. The question is misleading too - many people will keep their iPad 1 and add an iPad 2 as family members get to keep the old version. That's what I'll be doing - when they are finally launched in 2 weeks time over here in Europe.

    I get the new iPad2, the family get the iPad1. No upgrades as in p/ex but we will be buying a second iPad. They really are that good. Maybe when iPad 3 comes out, we'll get another one so we have one each... we won't be getting else that is currently on the market.

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