updated 10:35 am EDT, Tue March 29, 2011
IDC guesses Android, Windows Phone leading by 2015
IDC predicted on Tuesday both that Android would keep its lead until 2015 but that Windows Phone would overtake the iPhone for second place. Android would take 39.5 percent this year but gain only slightly to hit 45.4 percent four years later. Nokia's Windows Phone switch would end up reversing its situation and Symbian's predicted 20.9 percent share in 2011 over to Windows Phone by 2015.
The iPhone would pass the BlackBerry this year, at 15.7 percent versus 14.9 percent, but Apple would see its market share drop along with RIM's to 15.3 percent and 13.7 percent each. The swap would all but void Symbian's share and leave it with 0.2 percent by the end.
IDC hasn't had an ideal track record of predicting market share and notably in January last year presumed that Symbian would last at least until 2013, even after it had been demonstrated losing share rapidly and Nokia confirmed it later. The prediction also assumed that Nokia will keep its market share in the Windows Phone transition despite its actual success for carriers being in doubt.