updated 03:35 pm EDT, Thu March 31, 2011
ABI sees Android and iPhone still tops in 2016
ABI Research in a long-term prediction gave Android the top spot in market share in the future but came to very different conclusions about other platforms than a rival IDC study. Google would get 45 percent share by 2016, but Microsoft would have to get "incredible success" with its Nokia deal to get more than seven percent share for Windows Phone 7, ABI said. The platform's growth would be slow enough that it would be overtaken by Samsung Bada, an essentially Samsung-only OS intended for low- to mid-range phones, with 10 percent.
Apple would keep increasing in share but would be a distant second at 19 percent. RIM would see the BlackBerry drop, but only slightly from 16 percent to 14 percent, even five years later. The company has "found its niche," but the market will be wider and growing faster than RIM can match, ABI VP Kevin Burden said.
No mention was made of Symbian, which suggested that Nokia would lose most of its existing market share as Symbian users ended up transitioning to other platforms rather than to WP7. Android, Bada, and BlackBerry might be the ones most likely to take its place.
Both the ABI and IDC studies are far-reaching and are likely to change substantially as wildcards came into play. The newer study contrasts sharply with IDC's, however, where analysts had literally substituted Symbian's existing share with Windows Phone's for 2015.