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ABI: Android to get 45% share by 2016, Windows Phone just 7%

updated 03:35 pm EDT, Thu March 31, 2011

ABI sees Android and iPhone still tops in 2016

ABI Research in a long-term prediction gave Android the top spot in market share in the future but came to very different conclusions about other platforms than a rival IDC study. Google would get 45 percent share by 2016, but Microsoft would have to get "incredible success" with its Nokia deal to get more than seven percent share for Windows Phone 7, ABI said. The platform's growth would be slow enough that it would be overtaken by Samsung Bada, an essentially Samsung-only OS intended for low- to mid-range phones, with 10 percent.

Apple would keep increasing in share but would be a distant second at 19 percent. RIM would see the BlackBerry drop, but only slightly from 16 percent to 14 percent, even five years later. The company has "found its niche," but the market will be wider and growing faster than RIM can match, ABI VP Kevin Burden said.

No mention was made of Symbian, which suggested that Nokia would lose most of its existing market share as Symbian users ended up transitioning to other platforms rather than to WP7. Android, Bada, and BlackBerry might be the ones most likely to take its place.

Both the ABI and IDC studies are far-reaching and are likely to change substantially as wildcards came into play. The newer study contrasts sharply with IDC's, however, where analysts had literally substituted Symbian's existing share with Windows Phone's for 2015.



By Electronista Staff
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Comments

  1. wrenchy

    Forum Regular

    Joined: Nov 2009

    +6

    How on Earth


    is Google going to get to 45% of the smartphone market with all that Frag-mun-Tay-Shun?

    We'll just have to wait and see.

  1. iphonerulez

    Dedicated MacNNer

    Joined: Nov 2008

    +7

    20% would be good for Apple and the iPhone

    and adding in iOS for the iPad will give Apple plenty of revenue. That 45% Android market share revenue will be spread out over at least a dozen Android smartphone companies, but every penny of iOS revenue will all be going to Apple and that may account for close to 40% of all smartphone revenue. That should be more than good enough for Apple shareholders and Apple.

  1. ElectroTech

    Junior Member

    Joined: Nov 2008

    +4

    Could easily happen

    Android could easily reach those numbers in the real world. Who would have believed people would move to Windows XP and cling to it. Cheap and junky seems to sell. Apple will likely garner 50% of the profits in the market with just 19% of the market share. The rest will be in a fragmented race to the bottom with Android or anything (including WinPho7).

  1. ElectroTech

    Junior Member

    Joined: Nov 2008

    +2

    Could easily happen

    Android could easily reach those numbers in the real world. Who would have believed people would move to Windows XP and cling to it. Cheap and junky seems to sell. Apple will likely garner 50% of the profits in the market with just 19% of the market share. The rest will be in a fragmented race to the bottom with Android or anything (including WinPho7).

  1. facebook_Omega

    Via Facebook

    Joined: Mar 2011

    0

    I can believe the Android numbers, but.......

    the concept that apple will not lose ANY market share, as a result, is simply ludicrous! I think that these market analysts simply do not want to anger apple, it's minions or jeopardize the investments that they or their companies currently have invested in apple stock.

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