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Gartner: iPad will outsell Android tablets to at least 2015

updated 07:35 am EDT, Mon April 11, 2011

Gartner sees iPad over Android until 2015

A fresh long-term protection from Gartner has given Apple the lead in the tablet market for at least the next four years. In spite of the Xoom and other Android 3.0 tablets, the iPad is still expected to dominate 2011 with 68.7 percent share and to only gradually decrease. It would have 63.5 percent of the tablet arena in 2012 and would still have the largest share in 2015 at 47.1 percent.

Android would have 19.9 percent share this year owing to the launch of the first real wave of direct iPad competitors, such as the Galaxy Tab 8.9 and 10.1, but its growth wouldn't be a repeat of Android on phones. It would reach 24.4 percent next year and only gain steam near 2015, when it would hit 38.6 percent.

The BlackBerry PlayBook might end up helping Apple. Its inaugural year would see it get 5.6 percent and just 6.6 percent a year later, but it would eventually carve out 10 percent by the 2015 mark. HP might risk repeating what happened to Palm in the webOS phone era by getting four percent share for the TouchPad but gradually dropping down to three percent by 2015. Intel and Nokia would get MeeGo to 1.1 percent this year but have no success getting it much further.

Research VP Carolina Milanesi saw the iPad's extended lead coming from a classic mistake of companies competing with Apple. Many were rushing out their hardware with attempts to focus on bigger specifications and were only just thinking about apps and even the quality of the entire experience.

"[They] are making the same mistake that was made in the first response wave to the iPhone, as they are prioritizing hardware features over applications, services and overall user experience," she said. "Tablets will be much more dependent on the latter than smartphones have been, and the sooner vendors realize that the better chance they have to compete head-to-head with Apple."

Gartner wasn't entirely persuaded by Google's reassertion of its openness and believed that it had struck a "new licensing model" for Android 3.0 tablets that would prevent the poor experiences and rampant splintering that have sometimes defined Android on phones. The implementation would improve the baseline quality but prevent the rush to the bottom in price and could cap market share potential by preventing very cheap tablets.

MeeGo and webOS likely wouldn't get much traction unless they could also get more smartphone owners, which may be impossible for MeeGo with only experimental commitment from Nokia.



By Electronista Staff
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Comments

  1. Wingsy

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Apr 2005

    +4

    I'm OK With This

    And by the time Apple is selling 138 thousand iPads per year their stock will be above $800/share, making many of us millionaires.

  1. MacnnReader

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Oct 2010

    +7

    Who cares...

    Who is Gartner? Who cares? Shut up. Blah blah blah.

  1. Jonathan-Tanya

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Oct 2004

    -7

    ridiculous to think Apple will hold this share

    The "mistake" Android supposedly made, actually took them from nothing - to number one.

    So, tread carefully in calling that a mistake.

    Android may not be on top this year, it may take until next year.

    The reason Android will do well, is because of the safe areas Apple will give Android - Steve Jobs says no 7" tabs - well people want them.

    And secondly because we'll eventually understand the wildly popular B&N Nook really is a tablet - as they add email and app capability Gardner will have to include numbers - that already, would show a huge surge in Android adoption.

    Finally someone, whether its Samsung or a late entry by Sony - will have a breakaway hit, by Christmas, one of the vendors will get the hardware right.

    And yes - the problem has been that they didn't hit the right pricepoint with the right hardware features. But that along with Android 3.0 finally being released - means the Android momentum will build throughout the year.

    The Gardner analyst is nowhere close on this one.

  1. Jonathan-Tanya

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Oct 2004

    -4

    what Gartner forgot

    B&N Nook Color (Android) - announced to have app store this year - already nearly sells as well as the iPad,in North America

    Amazon Kindle Color, should be out this year. Kindles & Nooks, combined outsell iOS tablet devices.

    The reality is, as soon as these move to Android, that alone defeats the iPad.
    Sony - the other major player, has announced an Android tablet for 2011.

    2012 - Android will already be ahead of iPad - unless, unless of course Jobs goes back on the no-7inch promise, releases a smaller tablet at $299 or so.



  1. Jonathan-Tanya

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Oct 2004

    +2

    @GreenGo

    I'm not an Android fan at all.

    Sometimes people can examine the numbers without being a fan.

    I'm a huge iOS fan - that does not mean I will lie about its prospects.

    In order for iOS to succeed as a competitor in terms of sheer volume - it has to move out in volume in a variety of spaces where it doesn't compete now.

    In order for iOS to succeed in generating tons of cash - I have no comment, Jobs is great at that.

    as a business, profit rules, as a fan, we want marketshare to rule.

    Jobs doesn't care about marketshare so much that it becomes everything - and in fact, he's willing to lose marketshare. He's been willing to do that, his entire career.

    I don't see that changing any time soon.



  1. SockRolid

    Forum Regular

    Joined: Jan 2010

    +4

    It's the experience, stupid.

    "[They] are making the same mistake that was made in the first response wave to the iPhone, as they are prioritizing hardware features over applications, services and overall user experience," she said.

    Bringing specs to an experience fight? You lose.

  1. SockRolid

    Forum Regular

    Joined: Jan 2010

    +2

    Android has too many fatal flaws

    HoneyBomb is no longer open, and Google will pick and choose which hardware partners will get the latest versions. They will put the finger of death on manufacturers who aren't "good enough."

    Android Market is infested with malware and Google likes it. The more apps the better. More eyes on AdMob ads are always better (in Google-think) because Google makes 96% of their profits on ads. Google doesn't review apps. They don't care about quality or security.

    Oracle's lawsuit is airtight, there is legal precedent, and Larry Ellison likes to defeat then crush his opponents. The worst-case scenario: all Android software will be "impounded and destroyed" as per the lawsuit.

    The best-case scenario: Android will be re-written to use a legal version of the Java Virtual Machine. No doubt this is why Google has hired James Gosling, the creator of Java. To show the judge that Google is acting in good faith and promises to stop copying.

    Of course, that will require Google to pay Oracle for each and every copy of Android. No more "open." And soon, no more "free."

    Stay free and die. Or pay Oracle and live. Take your pick.

  1. testudo

    Forum Regular

    Joined: Aug 2001

    -1

    SockRolid

    Again spreading the Android "impounded and destroyed" FUD that he is so known to barter in.

  1. facebook_Joel

    Via Facebook

    Joined: Sep 2011

    0

    Android tabs

    I found a lot of info about android tabs here http://techworld-today.com/2011/09/cheap-android-tablets-arnova-coming/

  1. facebook_Joel

    Via Facebook

    Joined: Sep 2011

    0

    Android tabs

    I found a lot of info about android tabs here http://techworld-today.com/2011/09/cheap-android-tablets-arnova-coming/

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