Morgan Stanley sees late iPhone production ramp

Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty claims in an unusual Sunday research note that Apple would start production late on the next iPhone. Checks after a visit to Taiwan have led her to believe production would only start in mid-to-late August even with a launch still projected for September. Apple would "ramp aggressively" to get up to pace, Huberty said in the copy obtained by AppleInsider.

She has moved two million iPhone shipment estimates from the summer quarter to the fall, although she has left untouched her prediction of 72 million iPhones shipped all year.

The August estimate contradicts both multiple leaks and estimates that have production starting earlier, in July. Apple has traditionally started production about two months ahead of time to build up enough stock for a large launch in at least the US and to help take care of the initial spike worldwide.

For the long term, Huberty sees a large jump in iPhone sales, including the possibility of a cheaper iPhone that would focus on China and other markets where a low off-contract price is important. She believes, but doesn't know, that Apple is in the "early design stages" for its own TV. It may not ship for some time, but its shipment could be a major revenue driver for Apple, adding $19 billion of revenue and $4.50 in earnings per share each year.

Morgan Stanley's prediction is also optimistic for iPads. The iPad 2 had been hurt by the Japanese earthquake, but part supply has improved enough to reduce its effect, Huberty says. She believes reports of improved production supply leading Apple to negotiate lower contract pricing and improve its profit margins.

By Electronista Staff