updated 10:15 am EDT, Fri July 8, 2011
Canaccord ups iPhone targets but sees Android high
Apple is seeing stepped up iPhone sales that will increase its total share, but not necessarily enough to stop Android from getting half of the market, Canaccord Genuity analyst T. Michael Wakley said in two research notes. Checks last month showed the iPhone was still the top phone at AT&T and Verizon despite pressure from Android. He boosted his estimates from 75.5 million iPhones in 2011 to 77.3 million based on both the popularity and increased expectations Apple would ship the iPhone 5 in September.
Walkey added that iPad 2 sales were still high, with 35.8 million of the 63.7 million tablets shipped this year being Apple's. He warned that shipments alone were deceptive, however, since he believed Apple's actual sell-through rate was "much higher" than the 56 percent Canaccord was accounting for. RIM said it had shipped 500,000 PlayBooks and Motorola 250,000 Xooms, but they haven't sold well at their current prices and may have left actual sales considerably lower.
Android was still poised to make incursions in spite of Apple's efforts. The analyst group was modelling for Android to keep making strides in smartphone share and would have almost exactly half, 49.9 percent, of the smartphone market for all of 2012. The iPhone is estimated to slump down to 15.6 percent as sales cool down from the Verizon iPhone rush and would only tick upwards again in the fall with the iPhone 5, with 2012 tallies dropping to 15.2 percent.
This view also discounted the possibility of a low-cost iPhone in the near future, although one would come eventually.
Other companies would fare worse. RIM in this view will collapse from 16 percent of the market in 2010 to 11.5 percent this year, sinking to 8.6 percent in 2012. Walkley didn't believe other analysts' view that Windows Phone would restore all of Nokia's share and saw Microsoft at 5.1 percent this year and 11.6 percent the next, but not enough to offset Symbian's drop from 17.3 percent this year to 9.3 percent in 2012.
Apple's position was safer in tablets because of its position out front and its deep app ecosystem. Amazon, ASUS, and Samsung had the best prospects of challenging Apple, and Windows 8 could upset the iPad as well. Many Android phone buyers were still getting iPads, and Windows would still mostly be limited to niche enterprise buyers. Apple would still hold on to 51 percent share in 2012.
There were still wildcards, Walkley said. As much as HTC and Samsung were doing well among Android makers, they were stealing share from Motorola as the Atrix 4G, XPRT, and Xoom were floundering. The top smartphones on Sprint and T-Mobile, where Android was sheltered from having to compete with the iPhone, were all HTC or Samsung phones like the Evo 3D or Galaxy S 4G. The Samsung Droid Charge and HTC Thunderbolt were runners up to the iPhone on Verizon.
Apple is expected to have an iPhone on at least Sprint in the near future and hasn't yet had a cheap iPhone on Verizon. Canaccord also noted that there was a "replacement halo" that could keep Apple thriving as its established base traded up where other phone makers couldn't count on similar loyalty.