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Analysts: Android tablets, more to catch up to iPad by 2014

updated 02:25 pm EDT, Thu July 14, 2011

Nomura sees iPad eclipsed by rivals in three years

An unusually dissenting report from Nomura analysts Thursday estimated that the iPad would be eclipsed by its tablet rivals in three years. Working on the basis that Apple will ship 35 million iPads this year versus everyone else's 20 million, the researchers saw the lead narrowing substantially in 2012 and 2013, with the iPad finally losing an absolute majority in 2014 as 83 million non-Apple tablets trade hands to 78 million iPads.

The balance might be tipped by Microsoft. Although it would still remain the smallest category, Windows 8 tablets using ARM processors would swell from five million a year in its inaugural 2012 year to 20 million by 2014. ARM would also play an increasing role in traditional PCs at 23 million three years from now.

Microsoft would be the "game changer" that would break up the established order, Nomura said, although not until 2013. Android would be helped by this year's Ice Cream Sandwich update.

In the short term, Apple is still poised to have 65 percent of the market and would still only face any significant threat from Samsung. Tablets like the Galaxy Tab 10.1 are expected to give Samsung 13 percent of the tablet arena this year where no one else, including RIM, will crack more than four percent. In 2012, the split would be a virtual repeat among the major plays with only Samsung and "others" cutting into the iPad's share in any way, according to the prediction.

Multi-year projections often have at least some significant inaccuracy as they can be prone to wildcard factors. An unusually popular tablet, a product failure, or a platform switch could significantly alter the landscape, for example. Nomura's view is uncommon both in predicting a longer lead than thought by some firms but also maintains that Windows 8 will play a significant factor in Apple losing its absolute majority.

Microsoft has historically struggled to get more than niche adoption of Windows tablets but will, for the first time, have a genuinely touch-optimized interface as well as access to processors that give competitive battery life and slim profiles it hasn't had access to before.





By Electronista Staff
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Comments

  1. freddymac

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Jul 2010

    +13

    Micro$haft is done...........

    Way too late to the party. Keep up the great work Monkey Boy, your doing a fine job. We all love ya........

  1. Foe Hammer

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Feb 2005

    +20

    I Agree

    By 2014, they probably will have caught up - to the iPad 2.

    Of course by then, Apple will be well past rev. 2 leaving them still lagging woefully behind.

  1. SierraDragon

    Mac Elite

    Joined: Mar 2004

    +10

    A good thing

    MS may be evolving from a truly evil firm into a useful entity, even if only to help keep the likes of Apple working to remain far, far ahead.

  1. Parky

    Mac Elite

    Joined: Oct 1999

    +11

    Idiots

    What they fail to mention is that they are counting ALL other manufacturers against ONE manufacturer. Apple will still be the largest individual manufacturer by FAR, whicl all the others complete agaist each other.

  1. qazwart

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Apr 2001

    +19

    iPad to be eclipsed?

    This is possible since there is only a single iPad and there are dozens of other Android tablets. Apple may simply be unable to build enough iPads to keep everyone satisfied. However, this is not 1995. Being the number 2 most popular OS isn't the death sentence it once was. Windows has 85% of the Market, and Apple about 14%. Yet, of all the PC manufacturers out there, which company is the most profitable?

    The problem with the tablet is unlike the PC, Apple has set expectations. In the PC sector, the Wintel box set the standard: Cheap and cheaply built. Most people bought the lowest, cheapest boxes.

    In the tablet arena, the iPad set the standard, and everyone else follows. The problem competing tablets have is that they have to use the same quality of materials as the iPad, and they can't undercut the iPad in price like they could with the Mac. That's the limitation the tablets really have now. Why buy a Xoom over an iPad if the Xoom is more expensive? Why buy a 7" Galaxy Tab which costs almost as much as a 10" iPad?

    This is not to say that the competition is bad. It's just to say that competing against the iPad is so much more difficult. You have to really have a superior product at a competitive price. Maybe in a couple of years, the iPad won't have the top of the line reputation it currently has, and competitive tablets might make a dent in sales.

    Then again, Apple might simply replace the iPad with the next big thing and totally s**** up the market again leaving everyone else in the dust.

  1. SockRolid

    Forum Regular

    Joined: Jan 2010

    +4

    Mac OS post-Lion on ARM?

    One sentence that most people probably missed:

    "ARM would also play an increasing role in traditional PCs at 23 million three years from now."

    The way things are going, I wouldn't be surprised if Apple released Macs running ARM chips within three years. Apple has already developed their own dual core ARM variants. Quad-core ARM variants would be the next step. And Lion already includes many iOS-like features.

    Of course, that would mean that all apps would need to be ported to the post-Lion Mac OS on ARM. That would give Apple the perfect opportunity to develop their own Photoshop replacements etc. (Or maybe Apple could simply buy Pixelmator etc.)

    Adobe dragged their feet for 10 years before porting their grotesque bloatware to Mac OS X. And it hurt Mac sales. Never again.

  1. SockRolid

    Forum Regular

    Joined: Jan 2010

    +6

    Amazon's tablet will be clear #2

    If Amazon does release their own iPad clone, it will easily dominate all other Android-based iPad clones. Amazon has all the tangible ingredients for success: music, video, ebook content, plus their own app store, plus hundreds of millions of accounts with associated credit card numbers.

    Amazon also has the intangible ingredients for success: mindshare, brand equity, and years of experience selling to actual consumers. For example, Amazon supposedly is the most-trusted brand in America: http://news.cnet.com/8301-13846_3-10457727-62.html

    What, exactly, do the other Android iPad cloners have? How about Samsung? Well, they make great TVs and decent smartphones. Content? Nope. Hundreds of millions of accounts? Nope. But hey, they sure make some nice flat-panel TVs.

  1. viktorob

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: May 2011

    +9

    One thing is for sure

    If analyst has to learn something is that the only thing predictable about apple is that anything about apple can't be predictable.
    I have see tens of so called analyst that can be absolutely right about HP, Microsoft, Dell, but never right about apple's predictions.
    So Mr "Analyst", if you don't want to make a fool of your self, you better star predicting about some other company.

  1. facebook_Graham

    Via Facebook

    Joined: Jul 2011

    -3

    2014 Ipads No longer selling

    Android and windows tablets are now out selling Apples old style Ipad 50 to 1
    Apple says they are not really worried that much as they have not made an IPod for 12 months and the new Iwatch which they introduced 18 months ago is out selling the old IPad 100 to 1
    Microsoft says they will have there computer watch clone in 13 months time and will soon out sell Apples version

  1. climacs

    Forum Regular

    Joined: Sep 2001

    +3

    DIAF trolls

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