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UBS sees iPad at 66% share, PC sales slowing

updated 09:50 pm EDT, Wed July 27, 2011

UBS analyst ups tablet targets, lowers PCs

UBS analyst Maynard Um saw tablets disrupting PCs more than previously thought in a new investment note on Wednesday. He upped predictions for tablets in 2011 from 55 million to 60 million based mostly on Apple's skill at selling the iPad, shipments of which he saw growing from a previously predicted 32.3 million to a much larger 39.9 million, or about two thirds of the entire space. PC growth, which Um once saw as 6.3 percent, was now only going to hit 4.5 percent, both from the expected impact of tablets on netbooks but also because of slow growth outside of business buyers.

Apple in 2012 would still hold the majority of the tablet market, the analyst saw: although he saw tablet shipments up to 90 million from the 80 million he had forecast earlier, 53 million (59 percent) of that would come from iPads. Um foresaw a rapid increase much like that of the LCD TV, but due to people finding use cases for tablets, not because of dropping prices.

The revisions partly came from access to information. UBS' incidental checks showed that, while shipments of rivals like the BlackBerry PlayBook and HP TouchPad were healthy, there was "soft sell-through" leaving a significant number of these on shelves. A few Android tablet makers, like ASUS and Samsung, were faring better, but not as well as Apple.

Netbooks, in the meantime, were going largely as long-term thinkers thought, Um said. Many buyers and PC builders were tricked into believing the low prices and burst of early demand were a sign of a permanent market, but the market was bound to settle down. Inherently limited processors and the reach eventually slowed them down, leading buyers to either jump to traditional low-end notebooks or to tablets. At the start of the year, Microsoft acknowledged that netbook revenue collapsed by 40 percent in less than a year of the iPad's availability.

The analyst didn't see tablets repeating the same pattern. "Unlike the netbook market, we see the tablet market as being a much more viable market unto itself, and maintain our view that those that have broader ecosystems [for content and utility]... will be more likely to succeed," he said.

By Electronista Staff


  1. iphonerulez

    Dedicated MacNNer

    Joined: Nov 2008


    Good for Apple...

    I just hope this guy knows what he's talking about and that Apple does have a chance to weaken the hold of Windows PCs. Hopefully most consumers don't need a full PC to make content and can use the tablet mainly to view content. I'm certainly glad that the tablet killed off 40% of the Windows netbook market which was definitely the platform for cheapskates. A number of companies said they wished they'd never sold them due to such small returns as the loss leader.

  1. SockRolid

    Forum Regular

    Joined: Jan 2010


    Apple #1, Amazon #2

    ... those that have broader ecosystems [for content and utility]... will be more likely to succeed ...

    So let's see. Apple has the biggest, broadest, deepest, and most mature ecosystem. And Apple also has one critical ingredient: hundreds of millions of iTunes account holders with credit cards. All of which adds up to unbeatable #1 status. Through the entire post-PC era.

    Who else has all that? I think Amazon is nearly there. Plenty of music, video, and ebook content. Vast experience selling directly to customers. And more and more hardware design experience. They can and will swap out Android's neglected weed patch of an app store for their own Amazon store. Amazon should end up an unchallenged but still distant #2.

    So what about RIM? They have BBM, they'll try to milk the business market, and PlayBook will be fighting for 3rd spot behind Apple and Amazon. HP? Hardware and a great OS. And not much else. Probably will win the battle for 3rd just on the strength of webOS. Samsung? They might end up in 4th, with nothing to distinguish them from any other random iPad cloner with no infrastructure. Or maybe Moto could end up in 4th with their generic iPad clone.

    Microsoft? Well, after 10 years of trying, they're still going to try to jam the square Windows peg into the round tablet form factor. And isn't the definition of insanity "doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result"?

  1. climacs

    Mac Enthusiast

    Joined: Sep 2001


    why Ballmer is still CEO

    amazes and astounds me. Never mind, I hope he stays forever.

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