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Analyst: Amazon could 'easily' sell 3-5m tablets in 2011

updated 03:25 pm EDT, Mon August 29, 2011

Forrester believes Amazon could blow out tablet

Forrester analyst Sarah Rotman Epps on Monday estimated that Amazon could "easily" ship three million to five million of its anticipated Android tablet. She saw Amazon having the first real competitor to Apple's iPad provided it could ship at $299 or less and didn't have problems keeping up supply. Amazon's willingness to price dump, or sell at a loss to gain market share, could make that possible, Epps said.

She added that Amazon might want to ultimately distance itself from from Google if it wanted a chance at success. It would be best to create a unique experience, the analyst said, as Android and Google were now increasingly liability in tablets. Just nine percent of tablet buyers were actively considering Android, while 16 percent wanted an iPad and an unusually high 46 percent were looking at Windows, even if very few actually chose Microsoft's OS.

"Product strategists that we've spoken with at OEMs have voiced frustration about the limits of Android -- its lack of polish, the terrible shopping experience in the Android Market, the rules that Google has set for Honeycomb use that limit differentiation, and the fragmentation of earlier versions of the OS," Epps wrote. "It does need to differentiate its flavor of Android from all the rest, and that may come from emphasizing the Amazon experience over the Google one."

The company may be taking up that strategy. Rumors so far have pointed to Amazon using cheap components, such as two-finger multi-touch and dropping cameras, in order to get the price down. Amazon might use a heavily customized version of Android 2.3 rather than a truly tablet-optimized OS like 3.2. Its focus may swing more heavily to competing with Barnes & Noble's Nook Color than the iPad.

If successful, Amazon could do what Google and other major partners like Motorola and Samsung hadn't, stimulating demand for Android tablets and an app community. Only a few thousand Android 3-native apps exist at best where Apple had more than 100,000 iPad apps in just over a year. Google currently makes the exact tablet app count difficult to track because there is no way to limit Android Market to show just tablet versions.



By Electronista Staff
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Comments

  1. Wingsy

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Apr 2005

    +3

    Talk About a Reality Distortion Field!

    46% want a Windows tablet? You've got to be F'in kidding me. This is contrary to every poll taken so far about user's tablet preferences. Sarah Epps is smokin something different I suspect.

  1. AlenShapiro

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Apr 2000

    +6

    This is the lady who...

    ...predicted total US tablet sales of no more than 3.5 million for 2010. Apple alone proceeded to sell nearly 15 million that year.

    She sells her report for $499. Perhaps she'll sell enough copies to buy herself an iPad. It'll be close though.

  1. brainiac

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Sep 2003

    0

    It is possible

    Look how many tablets HP sold withing the last week.

  1. global.philosopher

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Sep 2010

    0

    Gadget grab

    The TouchPad firesale turned into a feeding frenzy. People were buying as many as they could their hands on hoping to sell them for $300. Only problem is that they will not find a buyer at that price so they will be stuck with a defuncked tablet.
    I know someone who purchased one and 1 week ago and hasn't even turned it on yet.

  1. facebook_Robert

    Via Facebook

    Joined: Aug 2011

    +1

    They are selling at $225 - $250 every day

    You may hope to sell your $99 tablet at $300 - you are free to hope, but they go for $225 or so on ebay. That's still more than doubling your money.

    And it's also a sold tablet that eventually get's used by someone. Of course HP would have sold out at $199 - they just tossed a bunch of money down the toilet, who knows why - that does not mean $99 is a magic price, its not.

    They could have sold out in minutes at $49 - would that have made $49 the magic price? They could have unloaded everything by giving them away - would that mean free was the only price point?

    C'mon people think - the auction price is giving you the going rate for the darn things, and its about $225.

    Anyway - that point aside, of course Amazon has sold a ton of Linux based e-readers, and their customers are only going to like a color tablet even more.

    Assuming it is easy on the eyes and light, and works good for e-reading.

    Android is not yet a liability - I said not yet, but the year of clumsiness needs to come to an end.

  1. mytdave

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Aug 2000

    +1

    dumping?

    Back in the day, I remember reviewing some cases in business law. At least at that time, dumping products on the market below cost to stick it to your competitors was illegal.

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