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Estimate has Nokia shipping just 500K Windows Phones in 2011

updated 02:00 pm EST, Tue November 22, 2011

Analyst sees Nokia moving few Lumia phones

Nokia may move just 500,000 of its first Windows Phones if an estimate from Pacific Crest analyst James Faucette is accurate. Pointing to "checks" for actual sales, he dropped expectations from two million Lumia 710 and 800 phones shipped in the fall to under one million. "Disappointing" sales so far might lead to the even lower half-million figure, Faucette said.

While Faucette wasn't specific on causes, a matching analysis from Pierre Ferragu of Bernstein Research helped provide context. The examination determined that Nokia was trying to throw itself into a too-crowded high end smartphone market when it should have been pricing the Lumias to get away from that space. The nature of mobile ecosystems was also working against Nokia: since many were now heavily invested in Android or the iPhone, Nokia and Microsoft were seeing fewer and fewer chances to convert users.

Ferragu went on to disagree with Microsoft's belief that it could buy market share for Windows Phone by spending billions through its Nokia deal. Windows Phone had poor adoption over the past year, and it was doubtful that the Nokia name could have a "meaningful difference" at a time when its own share was falling fast, the analyst said.

Nokia isn't likely to confirm any details of the numbers until its official results in January, if at all, but has tried to maintain realistic expectations from the start. Its major Windows Phone push isn't until 2012, when it reaches the US and introduces models that are completely built for Microsoft's OS rather than converting existing devices.

By Electronista Staff


  1. SockRolid

    Forum Regular

    Joined: Jan 2010


    No more room at the top

    "The nature of mobile ecosystems was also working against Nokia: since many were now heavily invested in Android or the iPhone, Nokia and Microsoft were seeing fewer and fewer chances to convert users."

    And now Apple has iCloud. More value-add for iOS device users. And more "stickiness" to keep users in the Apple ecosystem.

    Microsoft has neither the momentum nor the FUD-power that they had in the mid-'90s. Buying Nokia didn't change that. Neither did the KIN fail or the Danger acquisition. Good luck Ballmer.

  1. serkol

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Sep 2010



    reminds me of my bathroom - it needs new tiles...

  1. Paul Huang

    Mac Enthusiast

    Joined: Sep 1999


    reminds me of an old old

    iPod mini from seven years ago. Just because WindowsXP continues to live on, it doesn't mean swiping a design from another company from the same era is going to work well.

  1. BigMac2

    Forum Regular

    Joined: Dec 2000


    Microsoft got lots to prove

    I haven't seem anyone yet with a WP7 phone. Beside Pro-Microsoft blogs, no one had made a good in depth review of the OS. I still think Microsoft hurt Nokia reputation more than adding value to their product. It looks like Nokia has become Microsoft OEM manufacturer.

  1. Stoli89

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Jul 2010


    No Data

    One analyst with NO DATA makes a rumored claim and the market jumps. Me thinks his mommy and daddy have massive puts on NOK stock!!!! I'm sorry, but where is the data...where is the evidence? Quite a nice reaction for such sparse information. I smell a wall street rat.

  1. wrenchy

    Forum Regular

    Joined: Nov 2009


    That's what you get

    for not putting your faith in the Little Green Robot.
    And thank your Board of Director's for placing a Microsoft Crony in charge of your company.

    Bye bye Nokia!

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