updated 02:00 pm EST, Tue November 22, 2011
Analyst sees Nokia moving few Lumia phones
Nokia may move just 500,000 of its first Windows Phones if an estimate from Pacific Crest analyst James Faucette is accurate. Pointing to "checks" for actual sales, he dropped expectations from two million Lumia 710 and 800 phones shipped in the fall to under one million. "Disappointing" sales so far might lead to the even lower half-million figure, Faucette said.
While Faucette wasn't specific on causes, a matching analysis from Pierre Ferragu of Bernstein Research helped provide context. The examination determined that Nokia was trying to throw itself into a too-crowded high end smartphone market when it should have been pricing the Lumias to get away from that space. The nature of mobile ecosystems was also working against Nokia: since many were now heavily invested in Android or the iPhone, Nokia and Microsoft were seeing fewer and fewer chances to convert users.
Ferragu went on to disagree with Microsoft's belief that it could buy market share for Windows Phone by spending billions through its Nokia deal. Windows Phone had poor adoption over the past year, and it was doubtful that the Nokia name could have a "meaningful difference" at a time when its own share was falling fast, the analyst said.
Nokia isn't likely to confirm any details of the numbers until its official results in January, if at all, but has tried to maintain realistic expectations from the start. Its major Windows Phone push isn't until 2012, when it reaches the US and introduces models that are completely built for Microsoft's OS rather than converting existing devices.