updated 10:15 am EST, Mon January 23, 2012
Lumia 800, 710 sales get average prediction
An average estimate among 22 analysts has put Nokia's shipments of Windows Phones like the Lumia 800 at about 1.3 million. The Bloomberg consensus ranged between 800,000 to two million, although only one was cautious enough to drop below one million. While analysts often have a significant margin of error, the combined estimates potentially give a clearer picture.
The sales would represent just a smaller portion of Nokia's overall smartphone sales and an even smaller amount relative to Apple's iPhone or Google's collective Android sales. Combined with a late, mid-November start and holdover Symbian sales, however, the Lumia 800 and 710 may help at least shore up Nokia's results. They may also help boost tepid Windows Phone sales.
Most of Nokia's real test is expected to come in 2012. The first phones developed completely from scratch for Microsoft's OS should arrive this year. CEO Stephen Elop has likewise promised Nokia's first real effort to support the US in years, with phones like the Lumia 900 arriving in the US first rather than being treated as leftovers from the European market. Nokia has acknowledged that its neglect of North America was partly responsible for letting the iPhone and later Android dictate the smartphone market, which spilled over into Europe.
Its primary challenge is to quickly transition from Symbian to Windows Phone. Although analysts presume success, many of those jumping ship from the old platform have been picking Apple or Google, which might not necessarily change. Picking Windows Phone gives Nokia a more unique interface, but it simultaneously limits its choice of processors and could see it lag in speed and software features.