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Analyst: iPad mini to cannibalize 1M full-size iPad sales

updated 02:22 pm EDT, Wed October 17, 2012

Total Q4 iPad sales expected to surpass 25M

Apple's rumored iPad mini is expected to cannibalize up to one million full-size iPad sales in the fourth quarter, according to a sales projection from Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster. The forecast suggests that one of every five iPad mini sales may cannibalize the 9.7-inch iPad shipments late this year, if the new model arrives in time for holiday shopping.

Despite the 20 percent cannibalization rate, Munster expects the iPad mini to boost Apple's overall tablet sales from 21 million to 25 million in the fourth quarter, according to details from analysis referenced by AppleInsider. Moving forward to 2013, the analyst believes the smaller model will help push iPad sales to 95 million, up from his previous forecast of 86.5 million, with the iPad mini representing approximately 25 percent of the total.

Munster suggests Apple will set the entry price at $249 to $299 for the new device, though he suspects many buyers will purchase an upgraded version with greater storage capacity or additional connectivity options. Separate leaks suggest Apple may offer three to four capacities, several connectivity options and two colors.

Apple is widely expected to formally introduce the rumored device at a media event on Tuesday.

By Electronista Staff
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  1. msuper69

    Professional Poster

    Joined: 01-16-00

    As long as Apple sells a boatload of the iPad Mini (or whatever it's going to be called), so what?

  1. GW5555

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: 08-06-12

    What is not being said is that Apple consistently has trouble producing enough product for the demand, especially over the holidays. So, I suspect that, while the mini will move some people away from the iPad, there will be many people lining up for the iPad who might have gone with one of the alternatives if the iPad was out of stock. I think the Mini will have a far greater negative impact on the Android market.

  1. miawj

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: 03-24-05

    Hmm. So many people will choose to buy one size of iPad over another rather than purchasing a complete nesting set. Well, thank you, Vroomfondel.

  1. testudo

    Forum Regular

    Joined: 08-06-01

    Originally Posted by msuper69View Post

    As long as Apple sells a boatload of the iPad Mini (or whatever it's going to be called), so what?

    Well, let's see, if you're an analyst, and you were projecting Apple to sell 10 million iPads over this quarter, then this analysis is to basically let you know "Hey, adjust your iPad numbers accordingly".

    Because in mid-January, when apple goes to release earnings, and everyone was using 10 million iPads as the anticipated sales numbers, and they come in lower, the stock price will take a hit (for the stock price takes into account the number of items expected to be sold by the person buying the stock). So this is to get those anticipated numbers in alignment to reality, not to what Apple wants you to think they should be (for if it were up to apple, I'm sure they'd project they'd sell a couple hundred iPads, and maybe a thousand iPhones, so they can be sure to blast past their estimates).

  1. viktorob

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: 05-09-11

    If the iPad mini will cannibalize that many iPads, imagine what it would do to the rest of the tablet market.

  1. SierraDragon

    Mac Elite

    Joined: 03-22-04

    Yup. An iPad Midsize will scramble the midsize market.

  1. Wiskedjak

    Posting Junkie

    Joined: 06-04-02

    Originally Posted by msuper69View Post

    As long as Apple sells a boatload of the iPad Mini (or whatever it's going to be called), so what?

    $249 is a lot less than $399.

  1. aardman

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: 11-18-09

    The first rule of cannibalization:

    You better cannibalize your own product or your competitors will do it for you.

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