updated 06:07 pm EST, Sat December 14, 2013
Asymco analyst says Apple will have more than two-thirds US market
Apple's iPhone will be in the hands of more than two-thirds of American smartphone owners by 2017, according to one analyst's new figures. Asymco's Horace Dedieu took a look at trends in the U.S. smartphone market this week, finding that the rate of iPhone adoption has it on pace to move into a majority position in just the next few years. Dedieu posits that the iPhone will be in the hands of 68 percent of U.S. smartphone consumers as the market continues to grow.
The U.S. smartphone market, Dedieu says, is rapidly approaching saturation. Previous studies estimated that 58 percent of the U.S. mobile market consists of smartphone owners, as the technology has over the past year moved into the majority position in mobile. Those same studies had Apple's iPhone at a 25 percent share not in the smartphone market but in the entire mobile market in the United States.
Dedieu believes the saturation point will be reached around February of 2017. At that point, he says, about 90 percent of mobile phone owners will have a smartphone.
By that time, he estimates that the iPhone will have grown its share from its current standing around 40 percent to 68 percent. With an estimated addressable market - U.S. population older than 13 - of 266 million, that would amount to 180 million American iPhone users by February 2017.
Dedieu sees Android leveling off and declining from its current share of 50 percent. The Asymco analyst admits that his prediction is based on the notion that iPhone growth can be modeled behaviorally. The growth of the U.S. smartphone market, though, "has followed an almost perfectly logistic growth," Dedieu says, possibly lending credence to his estimates.